Seasonal Analysis: The Dog Days of Summer

Dog Days of summer

One way to reduce the negative effects of potential equity headwinds is to incorporate seasonal analysis into your portfolio management process. This allows you to identify sectors and industries that may outperform the broad market during this historically volatile month.

We are encouraged by three sectors’ seasonal tendency to outperform the S&P 500 Index during August over the last 20 years—a month when the index has on average been lower by 1.2% for equity investors, generating positive returns 50% of the time. As we review the data, note that nonseasonal factors still influence performance and should not be ignored.

The table below highlights sectors’ average over- and under-performance versus the S&P 500 during August since 1997, as well as the top-performing industry groups over the same period:

Looking at the table above, the utilities, information technology, and consumer staples sectors on average tended to exhibit relative strength versus the index in August over the past 20 years. But, if you’re looking for a more targeted strategy, the table also shows the industries underlying the relative strength at the sector level (i.e. “What to Watch in August”).

Drilling down, the information technology and consumer staples sectors experienced broader participation in August among their underlying industries versus utilities, comprising 5 of the top 10 industry categories (50%) listed within the chart. This was due in part to their market cap and overall weighting within the S&P 500.  On the other hand, though a laggard at the sector level, consumer discretionary has shown pockets of seasonal strength in select industries.

Although the index has tended to post negative returns in August, seasonal analysis can help to identify which sectors and industries may fare relatively well, particularly if volatility increases due to potential seasonal headwinds that historically have been more prone to occur toward the end of the summer. Stay tuned to the LPL Research blog for continued analysis of S&P 500 seasonal patterns.

 

Source:LPL Research

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security.

The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a falling market.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Because of their narrow focus, specialty sector investing, such as healthcare, financials, or energy, will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

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